COOKIES: By using this website you agree that we can place Google Analytics Cookies on your device for performance monitoring. |
University of Cambridge > Talks.cam > Quantitative Climate and Environmental Science Seminars > Jet Regimes and the Predictability of Euro-Atlantic Weather
Jet Regimes and the Predictability of Euro-Atlantic WeatherAdd to your list(s) Download to your calendar using vCal
If you have a question about this talk, please contact Prof. Jerome Neufeld. In recent years, numerical weather prediction models have begun to show notable levels of skill at predicting the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) when initialised one month ahead. Because the NAO gives a good first-order approximation of European winter weather, this has garnered a lot of interest. At the same time, model predictions exhibit unusually low signal-to-noise ratios, in what has been dubbed a `signal-to-noise paradox’. We present a new framework for understanding this behaviour in terms of the regime dynamics of the trimodal, North Atlantic eddy-driven jet. It is shown that systematically weak persistence in models may be a key factor in producing the signal-to-noise paradox, and that this is likely in part due to weak transient eddy forcing in models. Sources of predictability in this regime system are also discussed. This talk is part of the Quantitative Climate and Environmental Science Seminars series. This talk is included in these lists:
Note that ex-directory lists are not shown. |
Other listsVHI Seminars Architecture, Geo-Politics and Scientific Knowledge Chasing childrens’ fortunes. Cases of parents strategies in Sweden, the UK and Korea.Other talksFirst-principles studies of recombination mechanisms in light emitters Quantum Chromodynamics: Quarks and Hadrons Writing the history of education as social and economic history Passenger discomfort during longitudinal vehicle motion Is the COVID-19 pandemic really causing mental illness? |