Dynamical attribution of recent variability in Atlantic overturning

Add to your list(s) Download to your calendar using vCal

• Helen Johnson (Earth Sciences, University of Oxford)
• Monday 15 February 2016, 13:00-14:00
• MR5, Centre for Mathematical Sciences.

If you have a question about this talk, please contact Doris Allen.

Attributing observed variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to past changes in surface forcing is challenging but essential for detecting any influence of anthropogenic forcing and reducing uncertainty in future climate predictions. Here we obtain quantitative estimates of wind and buoyancy-driven AMOC variations at 25◦N by projecting observed atmospheric anomalies onto model-based dynamical patterns of AMOC sensitivity to surface wind, thermal and freshwater forcing over the preceding 15 years. We show that local wind forcing dominates AMOC variability on short timescales, whereas subpolar heat fluxes dominate on decadal timescales. The reconstructed transport time series successfully reproduces most of the interannual variability observed by the RAPID -MOCHA array. However, the apparent decadal trend in the RAPID -MOCHA time series is not captured, requiring improved model representation of ocean adjustment to subpolar heat fluxes over at least the past two decades, and highlighting the importance of sustained monitoring of the high latitude North Atlantic.

This talk is part of the Quantitative Climate and Environmental Science Seminars series.

This talk is included in these lists:

• All CMS events
• All Talks (aka the CURE list)
• CMS Events
• Cambridge Environment
• Climate Science Seminars within Cambridge
• DAMTP Fluids Talks
• DAMTP info aggregator
• Featured lists
• Interested Talks
• MR5, Centre for Mathematical Sciences
• Quantitative Climate and Environmental Science Seminars
• Queens' College Politics Society
• Talks related to atmosphere and ocean dynamics and climate science
• bld31
• ps635

Note that ex-directory lists are not shown.