BSU Seminar: "Multi-state modelling to estimate infectious disease burden"

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• Peter Kirwan, MRC Biostatistics Unit
• Tuesday 05 November 2024, 14:00-15:00
• MRC Biostatistics Unit, East Forvie Building, Forvie Site Robinson Way Cambridge CB2 0SR..

If you have a question about this talk, please contact Alison Quenault.

This will be a free hybrid seminar. To register to attend virtually, please click here: https://cam-ac-uk.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZMpf-6gpjkvHNaHjyzJDmLJi7vIrRb-STIQ

Despite advances in statistical methods and comprehensive public health surveillance, understanding the many facets of infectious disease burden remains a challenge. Questions persist of how fast a disease is spreading, who in society is most at risk, and which interventions might have the capability to save lives.

In this talk I will present research undertaken as part of my PhD at the MRC Biostatistics Unit, with a focus on the development and application of multi-state models to estimate infectious disease burden from observational data. Multi-state models are a flexible approach to estimating risks and lengths of stay, and capable of accounting for data biases and censoring. I will demonstrate the potential of these models to address certain limitations of classical survival analysis methods, with specific application to the HIV epidemic in England and the real-world effectiveness of SARS -CoV-2 vaccination.

This talk is part of the MRC Biostatistics Unit Seminars series.

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