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Inverting Entomological Growth Curves Using Functional Data Analysis

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FOSW03 - Statistical Modelling of Scientific Evidence

Co-authors: Davide Pigoli (University of Cambridge), Anjali Mazumder (Carnegie Mellon University), Frederic Ferraty (Toulouse Jean Jaures University), Martin Hall (Natural History Museum)

It is not unusual in cases where a body is discovered that it is necessary to determine a time of death or more formally a post mortem interval (PMI). Forensic entomology can be used to estimate this PMI by examining evidence obtained from the body from insect larvae growth. Growth curves however are temperature dependent, and usually direct temperature measurements from the body location are unavailable for the time periods of interest. In this work, we investigate models for PMI estimation, including temperature prediction, based on functional data analysis. We will evaluate the possibilities of using different models, particularly based on ideas from function registration, to try to obtain inferences concerning PMI and indeed whether multiple species data can be incorporated into the model. This can allow even more accurate estimation of PMI .

This talk is part of the Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series series.

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