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Communicating Complex Statistical Evidence

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If you have a question about this talk, please contact Arciris Garay Arevalo.

To be held January 8-9th, 2009.

THEME

Complex statistical models and reasoning can play a major role in informing both policy and individual decisions, but it is not necessarily straightforward to communicate what may be rather subtle statistical issues. This conference will bring together people interested in techniques to maximize the credibility and impact of statistical science in a range of important contexts, including health policy, climate change projections and impact, crime and the law, and epidemic control.

PROGRAMME

There will be a single strand with no parallel sessions. Contributed posters on a topic relevant to the overall meeting theme are invited.

DAY 1 , JANUARY 8TH, 2009

10:30-11:30     REGISTRATION & COFFEE

11:30-12:15     TBD

12:15-13:00     Christl Donnelly, Imperial College London, Using statistics and modelling to understand the “what if”s of                           infectious disease

13:00-14:00     LUNCH

14:00-14:45     Stephen Fienberg, Carnegie-Mellon, Assessing Information Based Counter-Terrorism Programs:A Statistical                           Perspective

14:45-15:30     Dr. Ian Evett, The Forensic Science Service, It’s not rocket science: logical inference and the judiciary

16:00-16.45     Lawrence Sherman, Cambridge Institute of Criminology Is it Ethical for Statisticians to Testify About ‘Practical                           Significance’?

16.45-17:15     Panel Discussion led by Philip Dawid

17.15-18:30     Poster Session & Reception

19:00-21:30     DINNER WITH AFTER -DINNER SPEECH BY (TBD)

DAY 2 : JANUARY 9TH, 2009

09:00-09:45     Simon Thompson, MRC Biostatistics Unit, Long-term health economic models: assumptions and uncertainty

09:45-10:30     David Spiegelhalter, Statistical Laboratory and MRC BioStatistics Unit, Communicating analyses of the                           performance of healthcare organisations

10:30-11:00     COFFEE BREAK

11:00-11.45     Chris Gilligan, Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge Inference for decision making to control botanical                           epidemics

11:45-12:30     Andrew Coburn, Risk Management Solutions, Catastrophe Risk Modelling – Decisions and Uncertainty

12:30-13:30     LUNCH

13.30-14:15     Chris Hope, Judge Business School,Cambridge, Probabilistic modelling for climate change policy

14.15-15.00     David Sexton, Met Office Hadley Centre, Probabilistic projections of UK 21st century UK climate change:                           challenges involved with production and communication

15:00-15:30     TEA BREAK

15:30-16:15     David MacKay, Physics, University of Cambridge, Communicating the Truth About Energy

16:15-16:45     PANEL DISCUSSION & CONCLUSION

WEBSITE

http://ccseconf.org/

REGISTRATION

Formal registration is available online: http://ccseconf.org/node/3

Only payments by cheque will be accepted, due by 15 December 2008. Institutions requiring an invoice should notify Arciris Garay Arevalo.

COST

Regular: Attendance, lunches and conference dinner – 60 pounds

Day attendance (includes lunch) – 20 pounds per day

Dinner – 25 pounds

Students and concessions:

Attendance – free, but registration required

Dinner – 25 pounds

CONFERENCE CHAIRS

Philip Dawid and David Spiegelhalter

This talk is part of the Cambridge Statistics Initiative (CSI) series.

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