Stochastic parametrization in numerical weather prediction

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• Glenn Shutts (MetOffice and ECMWF)
• Tuesday 19 January 2010, 11:00-12:00
• British Antarctic Survey, Room 307.

If you have a question about this talk, please contact Christian Franzke.

Please contact Christian Franzke (chan1 'at' bas.ac.uk) if you want to attend this seminar.

The rise of ensemble-based numerical weather prediction has forced modellers to represent the uncertainty of physical and dynamical processes in the forecast model’s equations by stochastic terms. Failure to represent this ‘model error’ results in ensemble systems with too little spread – even with the most pessimistic view of analysis uncertainty using inflated initial perturbations. This seminar will describe some of the techniques currently in use at operational weather prediction centres together with methods for their validation and calibration.

This talk is part of the British Antarctic Survey series.

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