Abstract

Natural gas is the single largest fuel source for electricity generation in the US. Its share of electric energy generated is expected to increase through 2050 while the shares attributed to coal and renewable sources approximately swap their values. However, electric power generation accounts for only about a third of gas consumption and this fraction is expected to remain nearly constant. Despite some recent regulatory changes, the markets for gas and electricity are independent and not well coordinated. This lack of coordination combined with uncertainty associated with variable renewable generation creates risks for both the generators that procure gas by interruptible contracts and the system operators charged with maintaining both reliability and low wholesale electricity prices. We formulate stochastic programming models for daily unit commitment and dispatch with uncertain wind generation to represent operation both within the current uncoordinated markets and under a hypothetical integration of the gas and electricity systems. Comparison of cost and reliability metrics across models allows an estimation of the potential benefits of increased coordination between the two systems.Sarah RyanandDan Hu