Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) and Communication for Chemical and Biological Hazard Response

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• Ronni Bowman (Defence Science and Technology Laboratory; Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute; University of Liverpool)
• Thursday 11 January 2018, 14:30-15:30
• Seminar Room 1, Newton Institute.

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UNQW01 - Key UQ methodologies and motivating applications

Effectively calculating and communicating uncertainty is crucial for effective risk management, but is difficult to achieve in practice.  This is compounded when the application area is highly complex with multiple model fidelities, and “accurate” UQ is impossible. 

Uncertainty communication must be clear to experts and non-experts alike and must account for a lack of understanding of the definitions of both “risk” and “uncertainty”.  By drawing on examples from the wide variety of defence applications that require an understanding and communication of uncertainty and outlining the reason that uncertainty calculation and communication is crucial to decision making, this talk will explore the current state of the art and outline the many open challenges remaining.

The talk will then focus on a particular challenge area and work through the complex information chain with associated timelines to provide an insight into the response times required to support real world scenarios. 

Content includes material subject to © Crown copyright (2017), Dstl. This material is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3 or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU , or email: psi@nationalarchives.gsi.gov.uk

This talk is part of the Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series series.

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