"AI" in the IPCC: quantifying uncertainties in the land ice contribution to sea level rise for global policy makers with probabilistic machine learning

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• Tamsin Edwards (King's College London)
• Wednesday 13 August 2025, 14:35-15:10
• Seminar Room 1, Newton Institute.

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OFBW74 - Uncertainty in Machine Learning: Challenges and Opportunities

Eighty-four scientists in fifteen countries. Twenty-one regions of the world with glaciers or ice sheets. Thousands of computer simulations. How was all this put together to predict sea level rise for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)?   I will describe how we used probabilistic machine learning to combine multi-model ensemble simulations of climate, ice sheet and glacier change to predict 21st century sea level rise for the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report in 2021. I will also discuss current work in the EU Horizon 2020 project PROTECT aiming to extend and improve these methods to generate more comprehensive, long-term and robust sea level projections up to 2300, to inform the next IPCC report and global policymakers.

This talk is part of the Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series series.

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