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Y Chromosomal STR Markers: Assessing Evidential Value

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FOSW03 - Statistical modelling of scientific evidence

Y chromosomal short tandem repeats (Y-STRs) are widely used in forensic genetics. The current application is mainly to detect non-matches, and subsequently release wrongly accused suspects. For matches the situation is different. For now, most analysts will just say that the haplotypes matched but they will not assess the evidential value of this match. This is understandable given the fact that a consensus of estimating the evidential value has not yet been reached. However, work on getting there is in progress. In this talk, the aim is to review some of the current methods for assessing the evidential value of a Y-STR match. This includes proposal for a new way to compare methods estimating match probabilities and a discussion of correcting for population substructure through the so-called θ (theta) method.

This talk is part of the Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series series.

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