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A statistical emulator for HadCM3

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If you have a question about this talk, please contact Mustapha Amrani.

Mathematical and Statistical Approaches to Climate Modelling and Prediction

As part of the PalaeoQUMP project, we would like to emulate HadCM3 North American Mid-Holocene summer temperature (MTWA) anomalies, at the resolution of the simulator (3.75 by 2.5 degrees). This will allow us to calibrate the parameterisation of HadCM3 to palaeoclimate measurements at the gridcell level, and to do continental-scale reconstructions based on these measurements.

Emulation has been a major theme during this programme. In the broader field of Computer Experiments its utility is clear, and its application to simulators with scalar outputs has now become standard. However, jointly emulating a large and structured collection of simulator outputs, such as a spatial field of climate quantities, is much more challenging. During this programme we have made progress on both the principles of such an emulation, notably the role of dimensional reduction and of separability, the computational aspects, and also in building an actual emulator for HadCM3.

This talk will focus on the practical aspects of building an emulator, and show how our emulator can be used to learn about HadCM3, and to learn about the value of palaeoclimate measurements for parameter calibration.

This talk is part of the Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series series.

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