Short term forecasting of Acute Respiratory Infections and their impact on NHS hospital pressures for situational awareness over Winter.

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• Jonathon Mellor (UKHSA)
• Wednesday 24 January 2024, 14:00-15:00
• Zoom.

If you have a question about this talk, please contact Dr Ciara Dangerfield.

Mitigations put in place during the SARS -Cov-2 pandemic supressed the transmission of seasonal respiratory viruses. There was an anticipated resurgence of non-COVID-19 seasonal respiratory diseases in Winter 2022-23 which were much harder to predict following extremely low pandemic baselines. These diseases caused an additive burden on healthcare systems, in the context of ongoing COVID -19 waves. We developed modelling methods to short term forecast a range of acute respiratory infections (COVID-19, Influenza, RSV ) at a range of geographies and metrics meaningful to healthcare managers. These forecasts used a range of Generalised Additive Models, time series techniques, leading indicators, and ensemble methods to improve assessments of trends.

This talk is part of the Worms and Bugs series.

This talk is included in these lists:

• All CMS events
• All Talks (aka the CURE list)
• Cambridge Immunology
• Cambridge Infectious Diseases
• Worms and Bugs
• Zoom
• bld31

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