On the quantification of parametric uncertainty in Antarctic ice sheet model projections, including the role of bedrock topography.

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• Andreas Wernecke (The Open University)
• Friday 04 October 2019, 11:00-12:00
• British Antarctic Survey, Seminar Room 2.

If you have a question about this talk, please contact Dr Maria Vittoria Guarino.

If external to BAS, please contact seminar organizer to gain access to the building

Century scale predictions of the Antarctic mass balance have large uncertainties. Those uncertainties can be separated into systematic model uncertainty and parametric uncertainty, the latter being caused by poorly observed model parameters which cause a spread in predictions depending on the chosen value. While model sensitivities to uncertain parameters have been the subject of a number of studies, there is very limited literature on quantifying predictive ice sheet uncertainties. For such uncertainty quantifications, sensitivities have to be combined with probabilistic parameter interference so that estimates of how the ice sheet would develop for certain parameter values is joint by estimates of how likely those parameter values are to be ‘correct’.

I will present different Antarctic ice sheet model projections with focus on uncertainty quantification. First we use statistical modelling to emulate the DeConto and Pollard (2016) ensemble. By doing so we are able to better understand the model dependencies, update the calibration and are able to derive new probability distributions. We will further adopt a probabilistic spatial calibration approach to high resolution BISICLES data from the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE). This allows us to explore the potentials, and statistical challenges of exploiting the two-dimensional spatial pattern in ice thickness change to improve sea level rise predictions. After that we will address the question of how well the bedrock topography at Pine Island Glacier is known for the use in ice sheet models and are happy to discuss whether this could be developed into a tool for future mission planning.

This talk is part of the British Antarctic Survey series.

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