Analysing effects of short- and long-term uncertainty on capacity expansion in European electricity markets

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• Asgeir Tomasgard (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)
• Wednesday 20 March 2019, 12:00-12:45
• Seminar Room 1, Newton Institute.

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MESW02 - Electricity systems of the future: incentives, regulation and analysis for efficient investment

The
EMPIRE model is a European multiscale power market model with investments
towards 2050 as well as representative hours. It is well suited to capture
operational uncertainty in generation from intermittent energy sources like
wind and sun. In the short-run
horizon, typical uncertainty is
in load, intermittent generation and inflows to hydro reservoirs. Short-run
sources of flexibility are regulated hydropower, storages, fossil generators
and demand response. In the long run uncertain factors include learning curves, policy uncertainty,
long-term commodity process and demand trends. In this paper we add long-term
uncertainty to the formulation. The resulting models are large scale
stochastic multi-stage recourse models with hundred of millions of variables.
We present both solution methods and analysis of the most important factors.
In the short-run horizon, typical
uncertainty is in load, intermittent
generation and inflows to hydro reservoirs. Short-run sources of flexibility
are regulated hydropower, storages, fossil generators and demand response. In
the long run uncertain factors include
learning curves, policy uncertainty, long-term commodity process and
demand trends. We look at the European level and analyze questions like to what extent the demand response potential
can facilitate an optimal transition to an European low emission power system
and how does long-term uncertainty affect the investments in renewables.

This talk is part of the Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series series.

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