University of Cambridge > Talks.cam > Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series > Multilevel Emulation and History Matching of EAGLE: an expensive hydrodynamical Galaxy formation simulation.

  Browse A-Z

Log in

Cambridge users (raven)details Other usersdetails No account?details

Information on

Subscribing to talksdetails Finding a talkdetails Adding a talkdetails Disseminating talksdetails Help and Documentationdetails

Multilevel Emulation and History Matching of EAGLE: an expensive hydrodynamical Galaxy formation simulation.

Add to your list(s) Download to your calendar using vCal

If you have a question about this talk, please contact INI IT.

UNQW04 - UQ for inverse problems in complex systems

We discuss strategies for performing Bayesian uncertainty analyses for extremely expensive simulators. The EAGLE model is one of the most (arguably the most) complex hydrodynamical Galaxy formation simulations yet performed. It is however extremely expensive, currently taking approximately 5 million hours of CPU time, with order of magnitude increases in runtime planned. This makes a full uncertainty analysis involving the exploration of multiple input parameters along with several additional uncertainty assessments, seemingly impossible. We present a strategy for the resolution of this problem, which incorporates four versions of the EAGLE model, of varying speed and accuracy, within a specific multilevel emulation framework that facilitates the incorporation of detailed judgements regarding the uncertain links between the physically different model versions. We show how this approach naturally fits within the iterative history matching process, whereby regions of input parameter space are identified that may lead to acceptable matches between model output and the real universe, given all major sources of uncertainty. We will briefly discuss the detailed assessment of such uncertainties as observation error and structural model discrepancies and their various components, and emphasise that without such assessments any such analysis rapidly loses meaning.

This talk is part of the Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series series.

Tell a friend about this talk:

This talk is included in these lists:

Note that ex-directory lists are not shown.

Other lists

Type the title of a new list here CELS lunchtime seminars Annual Disability Lecture

Other talks

Inference for the mode of a log-concave density: a likelihood ratio test and confidence intervals Mesembs - Actual and Digital Modes of posterior measure for Bayesian inverse problems with a class of non-Gaussian priors A role for the sodium channel beta 3 subunit in clustering the heart-specific sodium channel Nav1.5: Structural and functional implications. Bayesian probabilistic numerical methods Political Thought, Time and History: An International Conference
 

© 2006-2024 Talks.cam, University of Cambridge. Contact Us | Help and Documentation | Privacy and Publicity