Score-based calibration testing for multivariate forecast distributions

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• Marc-Oliver Pohle (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT))
• Thursday 05 June 2025, 09:55-10:20
• Seminar Room 1, Newton Institute.

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RCLW02 - Calibrating prediction uncertainty : statistics and machine learning perspectives

Malte Knüppel (Deutsche Bundesbank), Fabian Krüger (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology), Marc-Oliver Pohle (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies) Calibration tests based on the probability integral transform (PIT) are routinely used to assess the quality of univariate distributional forecasts. However, PIT -based calibration tests for multivariate distributional forecasts face various challenges. We propose two new types of tests based on proper scoring rules, which overcome these challenges. They arise from a general framework for calibration testing in the multivariate case, introduced in this work. The new tests have good size and power properties in simulations and solve various problems of existing tests. We apply the tests to forecast distributions for macroeconomic and financial time series data.

This talk is part of the Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series series.

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