Methods for inferring the end of infectious disease outbreaks

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• William Hart (University of Oxford)
• Wednesday 07 August 2024, 12:00-12:15
• Seminar Room 1, Newton Institute.

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MIPW01 - Modelling and inference for pandemic preparedness - a focussed workshop

Following the apparent final case in an outbreak of a severe disease such as Ebola virus disease (EVD), the decision to declare the outbreak over must balance societal benefits of relaxing interventions against the risk of resurgence. Estimates of the end-of-outbreak probability (the probability that no future cases will occur) provide quantitative evidence that can inform the timing of an end-of-outbreak declaration. Here, we present recently developed methods for estimating the end-of-outbreak probability, considering data from historical EVD outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

This talk is part of the Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series series.

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