![]() |
COOKIES: By using this website you agree that we can place Google Analytics Cookies on your device for performance monitoring. | ![]() |
University of Cambridge > Talks.cam > Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series > Katriona Shea (Penn State) - Harnessing multiple models for outbreak management
![]() Katriona Shea (Penn State) - Harnessing multiple models for outbreak managementAdd to your list(s) Download to your calendar using vCal
If you have a question about this talk, please contact info@newton.ac.uk. IDP - Infectious Dynamics of Pandemics: Mathematical and statistical challenges in understanding the dynamics of infectious disease pandemics Abstract: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has triggered efforts by multiple modeling groups to forecast disease trajectory, assess interventions, and improve understanding of the pathogen. Such models can often differ substantially in their projections and recommendations, reflecting different policy assumptions and objectives, as well as scientific, logistical, and other uncertainty about biological and management processes. Disparate predictions during any outbreak can hinder intervention planning and response by policy-makers, who may instead choose to rely on single trusted sources of advice, or on consensus where it appears. Thus, valuable insights and information from other models may be overlooked, limiting the opportunity for decision-makers to account for risk and uncertainty and resulting in more lives lost or resources used than necessary. We advocate a more systematic approach, by merging two well-established research fields. The first element involves formal expert elicitation methods applied to multiple models to deliberately generate, retain, and synthesize valuable individual model ideas and share important insights during group discussions, while minimizing various cognitive biases. The second element uses a decision-theoretic framework to capture and account for within- and between-model uncertainty as we evaluate actions in a timely manner to achieve management objectives. Resources: · Bjø rnstad, O., Shea, K., Krzywinski, M. & Altman, N. (2020) Modelling Infectious Epidemics. Nature Methods (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41592-020-0822-z · Associated shiny app: https://github.com/martinkrz/posepi1. · Outreach seminar “Disease outbreak control: Harnessing the power of multiple models to work smarter, not harder”: https://science.psu.edu/frontiers This talk is part of the Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series series. This talk is included in these lists:
Note that ex-directory lists are not shown. |
Other listsCambridge Area Worm Meeting The Faraday Institute for Science and Religion Postgraduate Travel GroupOther talksA monotone operator approach to SDEs with additive noise in the Young regime. Cancer metabolism, a hallmark of cancer Fifth Force Constraints from Galaxy-Scale Tests The mutations that drive cancer Role of cellular senescence in cancer and ageing: therapeutic opportunities Cold Blood |