University of Cambridge > > Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series > Emulators for forecasting and UQ of natural hazards

Emulators for forecasting and UQ of natural hazards

Add to your list(s) Download to your calendar using vCal

If you have a question about this talk, please contact INI IT.

UNQW02 - Surrogate models for UQ in complex systems

Geophysical hazards – landslides, tsunamis, volcanic avalanches, etc. – which lead to catastrophic inundation are rare yet devastating events for surrounding communities. The rarity of these events poses two significant challenges. First, there are limited data to inform aleatoric scenario models, how frequent, how big, where. Second, such hazards often follow heavy-tailed distributions resulting in a significant probability that a larger-than-recorded catastrophe might occur. To overcome this second challenge, we must rely on physical models of these hazards to “probe” the tail for these catastrophic events. We will present an emulator-based strategy that allows great speed-up in Monte Carlo simulations for creating probabilistic hazard forecast maps. This approach offers the flexibility to explore both the impacts of epistemic uncertainties on hazard forecasts and of non-stationary scenario modeling on short term forecasts. Collaborators: Jim Berger (Duke), Eliza Calder (Edinburgh), Abani Patra (Buffalo), Bruce Pitman (Buffalo), Regis Rutarindwa (Marquette), Robert Wolpert (Duke)

This talk is part of the Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series series.

Tell a friend about this talk:

This talk is included in these lists:

Note that ex-directory lists are not shown.


© 2006-2024, University of Cambridge. Contact Us | Help and Documentation | Privacy and Publicity