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Time and value: traps and fallacies of asset pricing

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Abstract We are familiar with the concept of > ‘statistical illusion’, that is, the tendency for human beings to make > statistically incorrect inferences from empirical data. Examples of > these include the clustering illusion (‘hot hand fallacy’), and the > gambler’s fallacy. This presentation discusses statistical illusion > and cognitive bias in the financial markets, and how it can impact the decisions of buyers and sellers. Examples include technical analysis, correlation products, long-term discount rates, securitisation products and mortgage break clauses. To what extent are all market agents prone to cognitive bias? If so, what implication does such bias have for regulation and market ethics?

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