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Probability, Why and How

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If you have a question about this talk, please contact Jane Buckle.

We continue to refine the foundations of rational inference. Measure theory derives from the associativity of “OR” (which is why it uses “plus”). Probability calculus then derives from the associativity of “implies” (which gives the product rule). Entropy is the unique variational potential derived from the associativity of direct product for independent systems.

It’s VERY simple. These basic associative symmetries relate to the partially-ordered states of the world as they actually are. We don’t need to assume exclusive states. We don’t even need negation (NOT). Probability is the unique calculus of inference.

Practical programming of it can often be done with “nested sampling”, a new method that allows extra flexibility in choice of prior model. This will be illustrated with multi-colour imagery.

This talk is part of the Cavendish Astrophysics Seminars series.

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