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Dynamic predicting by landmarking as an alternative for multi-state modeling: an application to acute lymphoid leukemia data

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We consider the problem of obtaining a dynamic prediction for 5 year failure free survival after bone marrow transplantation in ALL patients using data from the EBMT , the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation . We will compare our recently developed landmark methodology [1] and the established multi-state modeling as described in a recent Tutorial in Biostatistics in Statistics in Medicine by Putter et al. [2]. As expected the two approaches give similar results. The landmark methodology does not need complex modeling and leads to easy prediction rules. On the other hand, it does not give the insight in the biological processes as obtained for the multi-state model.

References

Van Houwelingen HC (2007). Dynamic prediction by landmarking in event history analysis. Scand J Statist 34:70–85.

Putter H, Fiocco M, Geskus RB (2007) Tutorial in biostatistics: competing risks and multi-state models. Stat Med 26:2389–2430.

This talk is part of the MRC Biostatistics Unit Seminars series.

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