Evolution and emergence of a novel human pathogen

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• Nim Arinaminpathy (University of Oxford)
• Thursday 11 March 2010, 16:30-17:30
• Meeting room 12, Centre for Mathematical Sciences.

If you have a question about this talk, please contact Olivier Restif.

We consider the role that case reports can play in predictability for emergence of a novel pathogen. In the example of H5N1 influenza, although there are continuing human cases, the virus remains poorly transmitted between humans. Here we use a simple stochastic mathematical model to study connections between the evolutionary biology of a zoonotic virus, in adapting for human transmission, and the epidemiology accompanying emergence of a novel strain. We find that patterns in outbreak sizes before emergence depend strongly on the adaptive steps that a wildtype virus must take. Moreover, we explore the effects of contact heterogeneity in the host population.

This talk is part of the Worms and Bugs series.

This talk is included in these lists:

• All CMS events
• All Talks (aka the CURE list)
• Cambridge Immunology
• Cambridge Infectious Diseases
• Meeting room 12, Centre for Mathematical Sciences
• Worms and Bugs
• bld31

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