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Towards the Probabilistic Earth-System Model.

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If you have a question about this talk, please contact Christian Franzke.

The case is made for a partially stochastic reformulation of the governing equations in future-generation climate prediction models.

Firstly, a guiding characteristic of the scientific method is an ability to characterise and predict uncertainty; individual climate models are not currently able to do this. Secondly, through the effects of noise-induced rectification, stochastic-dynamic parametrisation may provide a (poor man’s) surrogate to high resolution in reducing model bias. Thirdly, stochastic-dynamic parametrisations may be able to take advantage of the inherent stochasticity of electron flow through certain types of low-energy computer chips, currently under development.

These arguments have particular resonance for next-generation Earth-System models, which purport to be comprehensive numerical representations of climate, and where integrations at high resolution may be unaffordable.

This talk is part of the British Antarctic Survey series.

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