University of Cambridge > Talks.cam > British Antarctic Survey - Polar Oceans seminar series > Tipping points of the Ross and Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelves: how worried should we be?

  Browse A-Z

Log in

Cambridge users (raven)details Other usersdetails No account?details

Information on

Subscribing to talksdetails Finding a talkdetails Adding a talkdetails Disseminating talksdetails Help and Documentationdetails

Tipping points of the Ross and Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelves: how worried should we be?

Add to your list(s) Download to your calendar using vCal

If you have a question about this talk, please contact Dr Birgit Rogalla.

Ocean models consistently project that with sufficient climate change forcing, the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelf cavities could abruptly transition from a cold state to a warm state. Crossing these tipping points would have profound consequences for basal melt rates, buttressing of ice streams, and ultimately sea level rise. Here we analyse over 14,000 years of “overshoot” simulations with the UK Earth System Model, which includes a fully coupled Antarctic Ice Sheet. As the climate warms, stabilises at different temperatures, and cools again, we simulate many examples of the cavities tipping and recovering. We find that global warming thresholds of around 3.5°C and 5°C tip the Ross and Filchner-Ronne respectively. We also find evidence of hysteresis: the climate must cool back down beyond the tipping thresholds in order for each cavity to return to its original cold state. Even if the oceanography recovers, the ice sheet does not: sea level contribution from each catchment takes centuries even to stabilise, and the ice does not begin to regrow on this timescale. Therefore, if the Ross or Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelves cross tipping points, the resulting sea level rise will be effectively irreversible.

This talk is part of the British Antarctic Survey - Polar Oceans seminar series series.

Tell a friend about this talk:

This talk is included in these lists:

Note that ex-directory lists are not shown.

Other lists

Cambridge University Data Science Society Cambridge Alumni Energy Society The Use of Wood Finish Aluminum in Pergolas

Other talks

A new algebraic approach to the wreath conjecture Engineering genomes and proteomes as foundational biotechnology for translational research Unraveling faunal shifts and biogeographical patterns in Holocene Northeastern Africa and the Levant Statistics Clinic Lent 2025 III Wearable electrocardiography: from Holter to handheld devices Mechanically-Grown Morphogenesis of Voronoi-Type Materials
 

© 2006-2025 Talks.cam, University of Cambridge. Contact Us | Help and Documentation | Privacy and Publicity