Abstract

The British Antarctic Survey Radiation Belt Model (BAS-RBM) is a physics-based model of the Earth’s radiation belts that was initially conceived as a research tool to investigate the behaviour of this highly dynamic environment. Over the course of several projects the model has evolved as a research tool, but it has also become the basis of two space weather forecasting systems, providing information on the radiation environment for satellite operators, insurers and designers. Since 2019 we have been providing 24/7 nowcasts and forecasts for the European Space Agency on a publicly available website and recently we have deployed a similar system to the UK Met Office.

These systems collect real-time data from multiple providers, process it to create model inputs, run the BAS -RBM, use the BAS -RBM output to simulate the effect of the environment on satellites and produce a series of graphical displays with varying levels of detail. We will briefly explain the need for the forecasts and then describe the model itself before discussing the real-time systems that we have developed to provide the forecasts. Following a live demonstration of the system, we will discuss the challenges and lessons learnt in turning a research tool into an operational system.