Multi-year drought storylines for Europe and North America from an iteratively perturbed global climate model

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• Claudia Gessner, ETH Zurich
• Tuesday 22 February 2022, 11:00-12:30
• https://zoom.us/j/6708259482?pwd=Qk03U3hxZWNJZUZpT2pVZnFtU2RRUT09.

If you have a question about this talk, please contact Herbie Bradley.

Europe and North America have experienced intense and long-lasting droughts with large impacts on society and ecosystem. Therefore, it is important to understand how dry a worst-case drought would be and how long it would take to recover from it. Our study introduces a methodological framework to generate climate model-based drought storylines of different severities and for different locations. The so-called iterative ensemble resampling method repeatedly runs large ensembles and only keeps those ensemble members, which minimize local precipitation. In the first part, we demonstrated the feasibility of the framework by generating some of the most extreme meteorological and soil moisture droughts possible over western Europe and central North America, respectively. The drought storylines are developed with the fully coupled global climate model CESM1 . The second part analyses the recovery time of the extreme soil moisture deficits. Over the driest regions, the soil moisture recovers over a period of a few months up to more than five years, depending on the mean atmospheric circulation rather than on the strength of the soil moisture deficit. In general, the framework can be easily adjusted to simulate less extreme drought storylines, to reconstruct historical events and to generate idealized experimental setups.

This talk is part of the AI4ER Seminar Series series.

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