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FARIMA modeling of solar flare activity from empirical time series of soft X-ray solar emission

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If you have a question about this talk, please contact Christian Franzke.

Open to non-BAS; please contact Christian Franzke (chan1 (at) bas.ac.uk) if you would like to attend.

A time series of soft X-ray emission observed by the GOES satellites from 1974-2007 is analyzed. We show that in the periods of high solar activity the energy distribution of soft X-ray solar flares for M and C classes is well described by a FARIMA model with Pareto noise. The model incorporates two effects detected in our empirical studies. One of them is a long-term dependence (long-term memory), and another corresponds to heavy-tailed distributions. Finally, we address a challenging problem of how to build a proper physical model for analyzing fractional dynamics (Langevin or Fokker–Planck) with long-range dependence of empirical data sets.

This talk is part of the British Antarctic Survey series.

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