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A multi-scale modeling approach for simulating urbanization in a metropolitan region

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Metropolitan regions worldwide are experiencing rapid urban growth and the planners often employ prediction models to forecast the future expansion for improving the land management policies and practices. These regions are a mix of urban, peri-urban and rural areas where each sector has its unique expansion properties. This study examines the differences in urban and peri-urban growth characteristics, and their impact at different stages of prediction modeling, in city district Lahore, Pakistan. The analysis of multi-temporal land use/land cover maps revealed that the associations between major land transitions and the factors governing land changes were unique at city district, urban and peri-urban scales. A multilayer perceptron neural network was employed for modeling urbanization, and it was found that the sub-models developed for urban and peri-urban subsets returned better accuracies than those produced at the city district scale. The prediction maps of 2021 and 2035 were also produced through this approach.


Dr Saad Saleem Bhatti is affiliated with the Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge as a Research Associate. He is associated with the field of geoinformatics since 10 years, including around 6 years of teaching and research experience at the Remote Sensing and GIS Field of Study, Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand and the Institute of Geographical Information Systems, National University of Sciences and Technology, Pakistan. His research interests include multi-disciplinary applications of GIS techniques, spatio-temporal analysis and mapping, image processing, interpretation and analysis, and simulation modeling. His present activities revolve around: - working with agent based models; - conducting research in other relevant and multi-disciplinary areas; - preparing proposals for research grants; and - advising students in carrying out research and related activities.

Dr Bhatti also worked on multi-scale modeling of urban growth to examine the future implications of urbanization on quality of life. He has been involved in a variety of research studies related to the applications of geospatial techniques in the fields of hydrology, droughts, and natural hazards and disasters management with particular focus on the use of remotely sensed data.

This talk is part of the Land Economy Departmental Seminar Series series.

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