Pinpointing sources of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the United States using a gravity model

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• Stephen Kissler (University of Cambridge)
• Thursday 15 October 2015, 12:00-13:30
• Centre for Mathematical Sciences, MR 12.

If you have a question about this talk, please contact Stephen Kissler.

The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in the United States featured striking, and surprising, transmission patterns. The main epidemic wave emanated not from a major city, but from the less populous south-eastern part of the country, and moved slowly northward, resulting in a much longer outbreak than normal. To describe these dynamics, we have developed a disease transmission model based on the gravity model for human mobility. We use the model to identify key drivers of the epidemic, locate probable intra-national sources, and map the regions in which infection can be traced with high probability back to one, two, or three or more of these sources.

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