CGHR Research Group: The Future in Mind: Aspirations and Forward-Looking Behaviour in Rural Ethiopia

Add to your list(s) Download to your calendar using vCal

• Kate Orkin, Clare Hall. Discussant: Dr Claudia Abreu Lopes, CGHR
• Monday 03 November 2014, 13:00-14:00
• Room 138, Alison Richard Building, Sidgwick Site, 7 West Rd, CB3 9DT.

If you have a question about this talk, please contact the organiser: snd31.

Poor people often do not make investments, even when returns are high. One possible explanation is that they have low aspirations and form mental models of their future opportunities which ignore some options for investment. This paper reports on a field experiment to test this hypothesis in rural Ethiopia. Individuals were randomly invited to watch documentaries about people from similar communities who had succeeded in agriculture or business, without help from government or NGOs. A placebo group watched an Ethiopian entertainment programme and a control group were simply surveyed. In addition, the number of people invited was varied by village to assess the importance of peer effects in formation of aspirations. Six months after screening, aspirations had improved among treated individuals and did not change in the placebo or control groups. Treatment effects were larger for those with higher pre-treatment aspirations. We also find treatment effects on savings, use of credit, children’s school enrolment and spending on children’s schooling, suggesting that changes in aspirations can translat into changes in a range of forward-looking behaviours. There are also treatment effects on measures from psychology and sociology, including locus of control, which theory predicts should behave in similar ways to aspirations. Most effects are robust to corrections for multiple testing. Peer effects result in further impact on educational spending and induce more work and less leisure. The result that a one-hour documentary shown six months earlier induces actual behavioural change suggests a challenging, promising avenue for further research and poverty-related interventions.

Join the CGHR mailing list: http://bit.ly/1DHlhkS

This talk is part of the Centre of Governance and Human Rights Events series.

This talk is included in these lists:

• Africa Research Forum
• All POLIS Department Seminars and Events
• Cambridge talks
• Centre of African Studies Lent Seminar Series
• Centre of African Studies Michaelmas Seminars
• Centre of African Studies Occasional Talks
• Centre of Governance and Human Rights Events
• Economics and Philosophy
• Gem's List
• Room 138, Alison Richard Building, Sidgwick Site, 7 West Rd, CB3 9DT
• The Audrey Richards Annual Lecture in African Studies
• The Smuts Memorial Fund Lecture
• Trust & Technology Initiative - interesting events
• hc446
• jer64's list
• mas270

Note that ex-directory lists are not shown.