Explaining the recent 'hiatus' in global warming: models, measurement and media

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• Wendy S. Parker (Durham University)
• Thursday 03 May 2018, 15:30-17:00
• Seminar Room 2, Department of History and Philosophy of Science.

If you have a question about this talk, please contact Agnes Bolinska.

In both scientific journals and the blogosphere, there has been much discussion of a recent ‘hiatus’ or ‘pause’ in global warming. Climate skeptics have characterized the hiatus as a major problem for climate change science. In response, climate scientists have invested significant time and energy investigating the hiatus and have developed explanations of it that require no revision to existing theory or models. This talk will provide an overview of these efforts, in order to illustrate some striking features of explanatory practice in climate science. It will focus in particular on the important contributions of computer simulation models, as well as some of the challenges and limitations associated with their use. The analysis will suggest that quantitative ‘how-plausibly’ explanations are the best that can be hoped for in the case of the recent hiatus.

This talk is part of the Departmental Seminars in History and Philosophy of Science series.

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