UK Ash Dieback: Quantifying the Risk of Airborne Spore Incursion

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• James Alexander Cox
• Thursday 02 May 2013, 16:30-17:00
• Biffen Lecture Theater, Department of Genetics.

If you have a question about this talk, please contact Megan Cooper.

Chalara dieback of ash is a serious disease of ash trees caused by fungus Chalara fraxinea, which was first reported in the UK in 2012. We use a numerical atmospheric dispersion model to quantify the geographic distribution of risk to the UK of airborne incursion of C. fraxinea ascospores from infectious sources in Continental Europe. The model uses Met Office meteorological data and includes the effects of turbulent spore cloud dilution, loss of spore viability due to UV exposure, and washout due to precipitation. This is a large scale study involving simulation of a continental-scale source region across multiple decades. We find strong spatial correlation between predicted disease risk and observed infections in the wider environment.

This talk is part of the Plant Sciences Research Seminars series.

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