Lies, Damn'd lies and statistics: why it is (almost) impossible to communicate risk ethically

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• Dr Stephen John, University Lecturer in the Philosophy of Public Health at the Department of History and Philosophy of Science, University of Cambridge
• Tuesday 16 May 2017, 14:00-15:30
• Large Seminar Room, Institute of Public Health, Forvie Site, Robinson Way, Cambridge CB2 0SR.

If you have a question about this talk, please contact Lucy Lloyd.

This event is organised by the Applied Social Science Group at the Primary Care Unit

Dr John’s talk will be chaired by Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk, University of Cambridge.

Any claim about an individual’s risk of harm is always made relative to some reference class (or body-of-information): there is no such thing as an individual’s “actual” risk of lung cancer, but, rather, his risk “as a smoker” or “as a 40 year old”. This familiar claim in the philosophy of statistics gives rise to a simple question: which risk estimate should physicians communicate to individuals in the clinic? In this paper, I explain why this question is so difficult; I\argue that some standard ways of addressing it in the medical literature are deeply unethical; and I investigate the relationship between my question and the more familiar question of how we should present risk information.

Unfortunately, the term “best” is ambiguous between “most effective way to change behaviour” and “most effective way to ensure uptake”. Furthermore, there is a surprising silence on an even more fundamental question: what risks should we communicate in the first place?

This talk is part of the Primary Care series.

This talk is included in these lists:

• BHRU Annual Lecture 2015
• BHRU Annual Lecture 2016
• Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit Special Seminars
• Department of Public Health and Primary Care
• Large Seminar Room, Institute of Public Health, Forvie Site, Robinson Way, Cambridge CB2 0SR
• PublicHealth@Cambridge

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