Abstract

There has been a sharp increase in emerging plant pathogens in recent years. Current threats range from Ash Dieback (H. fraxineus), which was introduced to the UK in 2012 and is now widespread, to Xylella fastidiosa, a pathogen with a vast potential host range, from grapevine to oak, and which is a threat to the whole EU region following its first discovery in Italy in 2013. Drawing on work with Defra, the US Department of Agriculture and the European Food Safety Authority, this talk will describe how epidemiological modelling has been used to answer questions such as: how much surveillance effort is enough for early detection of an epidemic? And where should we target our surveillance effort to have the best chance of detection?