Abstract

Book online at http://www.cambridgejudgebriefings.com

The famous Canadian ice hockey player Wayne Gretzky once observed that: “A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.” Exactly the same idea applies in banking and business more widely: it is usually a good thing to be ahead of the trend. The problem is that it is often difficult to imagine what the future might hold in terms of products, market opportunities, risks and so on. This is especially true in situations of complexity, turbulence and rapid technological change.

In this Business Briefing, Jochen will discuss the challenge of imagining possible futures in light of recent work on “unknown unknowns” and “black swans”. The focus will be on unknown unknowns, possible eventualities that do not even register as possibilities when thinking about how the future might turn out. Jochen will argue that while some unknown unknowns may be intrinsically unknowable, others are capable of being “uncovered” in time to prepare for them. Attendees will be shown a technique designed to improve performance in this regard.

Cambridge Judge Business School would like to thank BNY Mellon for its sponsorship of the Business Briefings International Series for 2015.