The mortality consequences of rainfall and sea level rise in a developing megacity

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• Tom Bearpark
• Friday 04 July 2025, 13:00-14:00
• Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Meeting Room 14.

If you have a question about this talk, please contact J.W.Stevens.

Link to draft here

Rainfall and flooding frequently disrupt the lives of urban residents worldwide, posing significant public health risks. Rapid urbanisation is exposing larger and more vulnerable populations to these hazards, while climate change intensifies rainfall patterns and rising sea levels impair drainage systems. Despite the growing recognition and urgency of these hazards, the health impacts of rainfall remain poorly understood, and those of sea level rise are entirely unquantified. Without robust quantification, we lack a complete understanding of the health risks posed by weather and climate change, particularly in rapidly growing megacities where vulnerable populations are disproportionately affected. Here, we estimate the mortality consequences of rainfall in one of the world’s largest cities – Mumbai, India. We integrate high-resolution data on rainfall, tides, and mortality, to analyse how unmanaged rainfall and its interaction with tidal dynamics contribute to urban health risks. We find that rainfall causes more than 8% of Mumbai’s deaths during the monsoon season, and that more than 80% of this burden is borne by slum-residents. We also find that children face the biggest increase in mortality risk from rainfall, and women face a greater risk than men. Additionally, we demonstrate that mortality risk from rainfall increases sharply during high tides and use this relationship to evaluate how rising sea levels could amplify rainfall-induced mortality in the absence of adaptation. Our findings reveal that the mortality impacts of rainfall are an order of magnitude larger than is documented by official statistics, highlighting the urgent need for investment in improved drainage, sanitation, and waste management infrastructure, particularly in cities in the Global South. Moreover, our analysis highlights that the health costs of rainfall and sea level rise are a critical omission in current projections of climate change impacts.

This talk is part of the ICCS Seminar Series series.

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• Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Meeting Room 14
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