University of Cambridge > Talks.cam > British Antarctic Survey - Ice Dynamics and Paleoclimate Seminar Series > The long-term legacy of delayed climate mitigation on global glacier change

The long-term legacy of delayed climate mitigation on global glacier change

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Mountain glaciers have a delayed response to climate change and are expected to continue to melt long after greenhouse gas emissions have stopped, with consequences both for sea-level rise and water resources. In this contribution, we use the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) to compute global glacier volume and runoff changes until the year 2300 under a suite of stylized greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We show that even under scenarios that achieve the Paris Agreement goal of holding global-mean temperature below 2 °C, glacier contribution to sea-level rise will continue well beyond 2100. We also discuss the impact of early climate mitigation on regional glacier change and the consequences for glacier runoff, both short-term (where some basins are expected to experience an increase of glacier runoff) and long-term (where all regions are expecting a net-zero or even negative glacier contribution to total runoff), underlining the importance of mountain glaciers for regional water availability at all timescales.

This talk is part of the British Antarctic Survey - Ice Dynamics and Paleoclimate Seminar Series series.

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