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Physically-based modelling approaches to power-system forecasting: weather and climate

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Stochastic Processes in Communication Sciences

Physically-based atmospheric models are powerful tools and are widely used in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) at timescales of hours to days. This talk will discuss the construction of these models, their application to power-forecasting, and the use of probabilistic strategies to reliably interpret their output. The advantages and disadvantages of NWP compared to pure statistical models will be discussed.

The scope of the forecasting problem will then be extended to consider the potential for longer-range predictability and the affects of a changing climate on the energy system. Ongoing research exploring (a) the use of long-range weather forecasting for energy applications (weeks to seasons ahead), and (b) the impact of future climate on energy systems, will be discussed.

This talk is part of the Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series series.

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