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Robert Hanson on Prediction Markets

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Should we vote on values, but bet on beliefs?

Individuals can struggle to make accurate predictions about the future, but a ‘prediction market’ can take inputs from large groups and many experts and settle upon a probability, just as a trade market settles on a value for a particular good. These prediction markets often outperform experts and can help us to understand what the outcome would be of implementing any particular policy.

The Future of Sentience Society is delighted to welcome Robin Hanson, a Professor of Economics at George Mason University, research associate of the Future of Humanity Institute, and critically acclaimed author who was responsible for the first corporate prediction market and invented the Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule. He’ll introduce us to his concept of “futarchy”, a system where a policy would become law if the market predicted it would increase national welfare, with ‘welfare’ defined by elected representatives. We’ll then have approximately forty minutes for Q&A.

Come along if you want to learn more about how prediction markets work, how we can use them to get a clearer picture of the uncertain future, and how we can apply such predictions to our decision-making.

This is a talk hosted by our sister society, Future of Sentience Cambridge.

This talk is part of the EA: Cambridge series.

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