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This time is different: causes and consequences of British banking instability, 1830-2010

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If you have a question about this talk, please contact Dr Duncan Needham.

This paper addresses two questions: (1) What are the macroeconomic indicators of banking instability? and (2) What are the consequences of banking instability for the cost of credit? Using a unique dataset of bank share prices from 1830-2010 to assess the stability of the British banking system, we find that banking instability has grown more severe towards the final quarter of the twentieth century. We also find that interest rates, inflation, lending growth and equity prices are consistent macroeconomic indicators of UK banking instability over the long-run. Furthermore, utilising a unique dataset of corporate-bond yields, we find that there is a significant long-run causal relationship between banking instability and the credit risk premium faced by UK businesses.

This talk is part of the Financial History Seminar series.

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