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Inferring the spatial dynamics of dengue in southeast Asia

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Dengue remains a substantial public health burden in Southeast Asia with most individuals experiencing at least two infections by the time they reach adulthood. However, the movement patterns of the virus remain poorly understood hindering targeted interventions. We used the geocoded locations of hospitalized dengue cases in Bangkok (Thailand) and Cebu (Philippines) to explore the small scale dispersal of the virus in these urban settings. We inferred the transmission kernel that was most consistent with the observed spatio-temporal pattern of cases and used our findings to inform individual-based models to explore the potential impact of spatially targeted interventions, including the use of insecticide spraying.

This talk is part of the Cambridge Infectious Diseases series.

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