Fragile states and the governance of global catastrophic risk seminar; Hybrid

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• Speaker to be confirmed
• Wednesday 28 May 2025, 14:00-15:00
• Syndics Room, 17 Mill Lane.

If you have a question about this talk, please contact lme36.

Global catastrophic risks—including climate extremes, pandemics, large-scale conflict, and unintended consequences of advanced AI—pose existential threats to societies and economies worldwide. Effective governance of these risks is essential to sustain development progress and protect future generations.

This seminar will draw on early findings from a comparative survey in fragile states, employing expert elicitation to map how key stakeholders perceive catastrophic risks and identify barriers to integrating risk governance into long-term development frameworks such as the AU Agenda 2063. Our preliminary results highlight significant gaps between awareness of global threats and the institutional capacity to manage them.

We will then examine how policymakers and other actors in fragile contexts are addressing these challenges and consider the role of multilateral bodies—particularly the G20 .

A moderated discussion and audience Q&A will follow.

Panellists:

Dr Constantin Arnscheidt (Research Associate, CSER , University of Cambridge)

Dr. Constantin Arnscheidt is a Research Associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, where he studies the systemic contributions to global catastrophic risk (GCR). GCR scholarship has often focused on the risk posed by individual large hazards, such as climate change, nuclear war, pandemics, and AI. Yet the global risk landscape is increasingly complex and interconnected, and different drivers of risks and vulnerabilities may interact in complicated ways to create catastrophic outcomes. How should this inform our assessment of GCR , and our attempts to mitigate it?

Ms Pamla Gopaul (Head, Africa Policy Bridge Tank, AUDA -NEPAD) Ms. Pamla Gopaul is the Unit Lead of the Economic Analysis and Foresight and Programme Head of the Africa Policy Bridge Tank at the African Union Development Agency-NEPAD. In this role, she facilitates bridging the knowledge through strategic alignment for effective program implementation, and policy advisory to Governance structures and the AU and African Member Sates. She has a distinguished background, having served as a Senior Policy Officer and Coordinator to the CEO . Her responsibilities included aligning the organization’s strategic plan with program execution. Ms. Gopaul is also a member of the Sub-committee Lead for the Policy and Public Engagement Committee at the Pan-African Scientific Research Council, African School of Economics (Princeton University, USA ).

Dr Jacob Nyokabi (Researcher, CSER , University of Cambridge) Jacob works on the capacity of fragile states to respond to global catastrophic risks. He has a background in international security and development including with the Political Affairs Divisions of the United Nations Peacekeeping Missions in Mali and the Central African Republic as well as a PhD in leadership studies with reference to security and development from King’s College London.

Moderator:

Dr Kennedy Mbeva (Research Associate, CSER , University of Cambridge) Kennedy Mbeva (PhD) is a Research Associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, at the University of Cambridge. He previously served as a Postdoctoral Research Associate at the Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford. Dr Mbeva’s research examines how risk and uncertainty shape international cooperation and global governance, focusing on economic, sustainability, and demographic issues. In his current role, he studies how to manage the global risks generated by rapid demographic changes, thus averting societal collapse and existential risks to humanity.

This talk is part of the CSER Public Lectures series.

This talk is included in these lists:

• CSER Public Lectures
• Syndics Room, 17 Mill Lane

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