University of Cambridge > > Land Economy Seminars Lent 2020 > What will hurt the UK economy most after Brexit: restrictions on trade, capital or migration?

What will hurt the UK economy most after Brexit: restrictions on trade, capital or migration?

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  • UserGulcin Ozkan is Professor of Finance at King’s College, London
  • ClockWednesday 04 March 2020, 16:00-17:00
  • HouseMill Lane Lecture Room 3.

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{ABOUT THE SPEAKER } Gulcin Ozkan is a Professor of Finance at King’s College, London, having previously taught at the University of York and Durham University. Her main research interests lie in international finance, emerging markets and political economics. Her recent research takes up issues such as financial crises; fiscal austerity and redistribution; optimal monetary and macroprudential policy for emerging economies; and economics of constitutions.

{ABSTRACT} EU membership guarantees the free movement of goods, services, capital, and labour among its member states. Brexit is therefore a prospective source of trade, migration, and financial shocks to the UK economy, with significant potential consequences for both the UK and its main trading partners. This paper proposes a three-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to examine a number of alternative scenarios for the future UK-EU arrangements – based on the on-going Brexit negotiations. Our results suggest that the greatest potential losses from Brexit are likely to result from, respectively, the imposition of tariff and non-tariff barriers, reduced financial flows and reduced migration, with important implications for policy design in a post-Brexit world.

This talk is part of the Land Economy Seminars Lent 2020 series.

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