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SUMMARY:Constructing the effect of mooted intervention strategies on histo
 ric epidemics - Alex Cook (Plant Sciences)
DTSTART:20080228T152000Z
DTEND:20080228T163000Z
UID:TALK9919@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Ken Eames
DESCRIPTION:Data from historical epidemics provide a vital and sometimes u
 nder-used resource from which to devise strategies for future control of d
 isease. Previous methods for retrospective analysis of epidemics\, in whic
 h mooted interventions are compared\, do not make full use of the informat
 ion\; by using only partial information on the historical trajectory\, aug
 mentation of control may lead to predictions of a paradoxical increase in 
 disease. Here we introduce a novel statistical approach that takes full ac
 count of the available information in constructing the effect of mooted in
 tervention strategies in historic epidemics. The key to the method lies in
  identifying a suitable mapping between the historic and notional outbreak
 s\, under the mooted control strategy. This is done by using the Sellke co
 nstruction as a latent process linking epidemics. The application of the m
 ethod is illustrated by two examples. First\, using temporal data for the 
 common human cold\, the improvement under the new method in the precision 
 of predictions for different control strategies is shown. Secondly\, the g
 enerality of the method for retrospective analysis of epidemics is shown b
 y applying it to a spatially-extended arboreal epidemic in which the relat
 ive effectiveness of host culling strategies that differ in frequency and 
 spatial extent are compared. Some of the inferential and philosophical iss
 ues that arise are discussed along with the scope of potential application
  of the new method.\n
LOCATION:Meeting room 5\, Centre for Mathematical Sciences
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