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SUMMARY:Uncertainty analysis for complex systems modelled by computer simu
 lators - Michael Goldstein (Durham University)
DTSTART:20180109T090000Z
DTEND:20180109T100000Z
UID:TALK97471@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:INI IT
DESCRIPTION:This talk will present an overview of aspects of a general Bay
 esian methodology for performing detailed uncertainty analyses for complex
  physical systems which are modelled by computer simulators.  Key features
  of this methodology are (i) simulator emulation\, to allow us to explore 
 the full range of outputs of the simulator (ii) history matching to identi
 fy all input choices consistent with historical data\, and thus all future
  outcomes consistent with these choices (iii) structural discrepancy model
 ling\, to make reliable uncertainty statements about the real world.
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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