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SUMMARY:Qualitative Physics: An alternative approach to assess coupled hum
 an-environment systems -  Jurgen P. Kropp\, Potsdam Institute for Climate 
 Impact Research\, Potsdam\, Germany
DTSTART:20070813T110500Z
DTEND:20070813T115000Z
UID:TALK7792@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Nick Watkins
DESCRIPTION:Current research in earth system science follows two direction
 s: The first analyzes broad scale processes of the entire earth\, as e.g.
  potential vegetation distribution or global warming\, and develops and im
 proves global models. The second dimension of global change research is re
 lated to the circumstance that policy makers increasingly demand concrete 
 policy advice from the side of science. It focuses mainly on the the human
 -environment interface. Whenever we are estimating society-environment int
 erferences certain presumptions about humankind’s behavior are needed. D
 ealing with quantitative models this often implies that we have to estimat
 e parameter settings. Nevertheless for many cases in formal models\, e.g. 
 for economic decisions\, these parameters are rather uncertain. Therefore 
 we suggest qualitative physics as an alternative approach to analyze human
 -environment problems. Since in such complex environments the challenge sh
 ould not be performances of increasingly detailed formal analysis - with a
  high risk of failure - but to follow an analytical approach allowing to i
 dentify the general functionalities of a system [7]. Such approach should 
 include the identification of potential precursor signals indicating crit
 ical events or should at least supply a weak prognosis of a system’s pot
 ential development paths (cf. e.g. [5]). Viability analysis [1] and qualit
 ative differential equations [6] are valuable concepts in this context. I
 n the lecture the (dynamical) pattern approach is used as a basis of knowl
 edge deduction. This is necessary for an examination of real-world systems
  that cannot be described in unique ways (cf.  e.g. [3]). By several examp
 les\, e.g. for the management of open access resources or climate research
  (e.g. [2\,4\,5]\, their usefulness will be exemplified.\n\nReferences\n\
 n[1] Aubin JP (1991): Viability Theory. Birkhuser\, Basle\, ISBN 978081763
 5718.\n\n[2] Eisenack K\, Welsch H\, and Kropp JP (2006): A qualitative dy
 namical modelling approach to capital accumulation in unregulated fisheri
 es. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 30: 2613-2636.\n\n[3] Kropp 
 JP and Scheffran J. (eds.) (2007): Advanced Methods\, for Decision Making
  and Risk Management in Sustainability Science. New York: Nova Science Pub
 lishers\, New York\, ISBN 9781600214271.\n\n[4] Kropp JP\, Eisenack K\, an
 d Scheffran J (2006): Marine overexploitation: a syndrome of global chang
 e. In: Multiple Dimensions of Global Environmental Change (ed. S. Sonak)\,
  Chapt. 15\, p. 257-284. TERI Press\, New Dehli\, ISBN 8179930912.\n\n[5] 
 Kropp JP\, Zickfeld K\, and Eisenack K. (2002): Management of critical eve
 nts: the breakdown of marine fisheries and the North Atlantic thermohalin
 e circulation In: The Science of Disasters: Climate Disruptions\, Heart At
 tacks\, and Market Crashes\, pp. 192-216\, edited by A Bunde\, JP Kropp\, 
 and HJ Schellnhuber\, Berlin: Springer\, 453 pp.\, ISBN 3540413243.\n\n[6]
  Kuipers B (1994) Qualitative reasoning: modeling and simulation with inco
 mplete knowledge. Cambridge: MIT Press\, 418 pp.\, ISBN 026211190X.\n\n[7]
  Schellnhuber H J and Kropp J. (1998): Geocybernetics: controlling a compl
 ex dynamical system under uncertainty. Naturwissenschaften 85 (9): 411-425
 .\n
LOCATION:Law Faculty\, Cambridge
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