BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//talks.cam.ac.uk//v3//EN
BEGIN:VTIMEZONE
TZID:Europe/London
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
TZNAME:BST
DTSTART:19700329T010000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;BYMONTH=3;BYDAY=-1SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
TZNAME:GMT
DTSTART:19701025T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;BYMONTH=10;BYDAY=-1SU
END:STANDARD
END:VTIMEZONE
BEGIN:VEVENT
CATEGORIES:CamPoS (Cambridge Philosophy of Science) seminar
SUMMARY:Towards a more realistic subjective decision theor
y - Yang Liu (Centre for the Study of Existential
Risk)
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20170222T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20170222T143000
UID:TALK70722AThttp://talks.cam.ac.uk
URL:http://talks.cam.ac.uk/talk/index/70722
DESCRIPTION:In his seminal work “the Foundations of Statistics
\,” Savage \nput forward a theory of subjective pr
obabilities. The theory is based on \na well-devel
oped axiomatic theory of rational decision making.
In \nconstructing his system\, additional problem
atic assumptions are however \nrequired. First\, t
here is a Boolean algebra of events on which \nsub
jective probabilities are defined. Savage's proof
requires this \nalgebra to be a σ-algebra. However
\, on Savage's view\, one should not \nrequire the
probability to be σ-additive. He\, therefore\, fi
nds the \ninsistence on a σ-algebra peculiar and u
nsatisfactory. But he sees no \nway of avoiding it
. Second\, the assignment of utilities requires th
e \nconstant act assumption: for every given conse
quence there exists a \nconstant act which has tha
t consequence in every state. This assumption \nis
known to be highly counterintuitive. The paper on
which this talk is \nbased includes two mathemati
cal results. The first\, and the more \ndifficult
one\, shows that the σ-algebra assumption can be d
ropped. The \nsecond states that\, as long as util
ities are assigned to finite gambles \nonly\, the
constant act assumption can be replaced by the pla
usible\, much \nweaker assumption that there are a
t least two non-equivalent constant \nacts.\n\nIn
this talk\, I will first review Ramsey and Savage’
s classical \ndecision-theoretic models. I will th
en discuss the notion of “idealized \nagents” in s
tandard normative decision theory. I will argue th
at our \nsimplified system\, which is adequate for
all the actual purposes for \nwhich the system is
designed\, involves a more realistic notion of \n
idealized agents. This will be followed by a brief
outline of our new \ntechnique of tripartition tr
ees which leads to the construction of \nquantitat
ive probabilities in Savage-style systems without
the σ-algebra \nassumption.
LOCATION:Seminar Room 2\, Department of History and Philoso
phy of Science
CONTACT:
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR