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SUMMARY:Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of recent Ebola spread and ou
 tbreak in West Africa: impact of control measures - Upadhyay\, RK (Indian 
 School of Mines)
DTSTART:20151006T100000Z
DTEND:20151006T113000Z
UID:TALK61414@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:42080
DESCRIPTION:Recently\, the 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa
  is the largest outbreak to date. To understand the Ebola transmission dyn
 amics\, we formulate a compartmental epidemic model with exponentially dec
 aying transmission rates and study the impact of control measures to basic
  public health using an SEIR model. The epidemic model exhibits two equili
 bria\, namely\, the disease-free and unique endemic equilibria. We have ca
 lculated the basic reproduction number through next generation matrix and 
 studied the spatial spread of the epidemic via reaction-diffusion modeling
 . We do not fit the model to the observed pattern of spread rather\, we us
 e parameter values estimated in past and examine the extent to which the d
 esigned model prediction agrees with the pattern of spread seen in  Guinea
 \, Liberia and Sierra Leone\, West Africa.  We employ disease threshold an
 d sensitivity analysis to determine the extent to which the predictions co
 uld have improved by better parameterization.\n\nNumerical simulations are
  performed with and without control measure for the designed model system.
  Using central manifold theory\, it is established that the transcritical 
 bifurcation occurs when basic reproduction number passes through unity. Th
 e proposed Ebola epidemic model provides an estimate to the potential numb
 er of future cases. The model indicates that the disease will decline afte
 r peaking up if multisectorial and multinational efforts to control the sp
 read of infection are maintained. Possible implication of the results for 
 disease eradication and its control are discussed which suggests that prop
 er control strategies like: (i) transmission precautions\, (ii) isolation 
 and care of infectious Ebola patients\, (iii) safe burial\, (iv) contact t
 racing with follow-up and quarantine\, and (v) early diagnosis are needed 
 to stop the recurrent outbreak. A significant reduction in infection and d
 eath cases are observed when proper control measures after two months is i
 ncorporated in the model system. Two dimensional simulation experiments sh
 ow that infectious population and the number of deaths in Sierra Leone wil
 l increase up to one and a half year without control but it will decline a
 fter two years. So there is a hope to end this disaster.  \n\nKeywords Ebo
 la epidemic model\; Transcritical bifurcation\; Spatial spread\; Basic rep
 roduction number\; Control measures.\n\n
LOCATION:Seminar Room 2\, Newton Institute Gatehouse
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