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SUMMARY:A Combinatorial Prediction Market for the US Elections - Sebastien
  Lahaie\, Microsoft Research\, New York
DTSTART:20131219T100000Z
DTEND:20131219T110000Z
UID:TALK49502@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Microsoft Research Cambridge Talks Admins
DESCRIPTION:We present a new market maker that automatically provides liqu
 idity across multiple logically interrelated securities. Our approach lies
  somewhere between the industry standard--treating related securities as i
 ndependent and thus not transmitting any information from one security to 
 another--and a full combinatorial market maker for which pricing is comput
 ationally intractable. Our market maker\, based on convex optimization and
  constraint generation\, is tractable like independent securities yet prop
 agates some information among related securities like a combinatorial mark
 et maker\, resulting in more complete information aggregation. We prove se
 veral favorable properties of our scheme and report on its information agg
 regation performance in a live implementation of the market for the 2012 U
 S presidential elections\, which drew hundreds of users.\n\nJoint work wit
 h Miro Dudík\, David Pennock\, and David Rothschild.
LOCATION:Auditorium\, Microsoft Research Ltd\, 21 Station Road\, Cambridge
 \, CB1 2FB
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